'A storm is gathering on the horizon': Chinese scholars fret about Trump

the days after Donald Trump’s sensational election victory Chinese foreign policy experts heralded the property tycoon’s triumph as a rare opportunity to recast the often rancorous relationship between Washington and Beijing.

唐纳德·特朗普戏剧性当选总统之初，中国外交专家预言，这位地产大亨的胜利堪为千载难逢的机会，可以重塑华盛顿和北京之间怨恨重重的关系。

rancorous | 满怀愤懑的

例句：Rancorous Brexit negotiations, stagnant real wages and cuts to public services could fuel public discontent with mainstream politics.（经济学人，12月1日）令人愤恨的英国退欧谈判、实际工资增长停滞以及公务员裁员，这激起主流政治界的不满。

“In everything he is better than Clinton,” commemorated Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations from Shanghai’s Fudan University. “We must welcome him.”

“他哪点儿比克林顿强。”上海复旦大学国际关系教授沈丁立说。“我们要欢迎他。”

On Monday, as news of Trump’s latest Twitter attack on Beijing filtered through to China, that tune had changed.

周一，特朗普在推特上攻击北京的新闻渗入了中国网络，于是调门变了。

“Ignorant. Distasteful,” snapped Shen when asked for his reaction to the president-elect’s 277-character outburst and his incendiary decision to engage with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen on the telephone last Friday.

“无知，可鄙。”沈丁立厉声喝道，他回应候任总统277字的情感爆发以及他上周五决定和台湾领导人蔡英文通话接触的决定，这引燃了怒火。

Shen, the deputy head of Fudan University’s institute of international affairs, said he had been outraged by Trump’s 10-minute call with the leader of Taiwan, a self-ruled island which China considers a renegade province.

复旦大学国际事务研究所副主任沈丁立说，特朗普与台湾领导人通了10分钟电话，这令他震怒，台湾被认为是中国一个脱离管辖的自治省。

“If he continues to call Taiwan a country we [should] sever relations with him,” the academic fumed. “I don’t know what the government would do [but] I know what I would do: I will close our embassy.”

“如果他继续把台湾称作一个国家，我们就和他断交。”研究员愤怒地说。“我不知道政府会怎么做，我知道我会怎么做：我会关掉我们的大使馆。”

Shi Yinhong, a Renmin University foreign policy expert, agreed the chances of a bitter and messy rupture between the US and China had increased following Sunday night’s tweets in which Trump again lashed out at Beijing’s alleged currency manipulation and construction of “a massive military complex” in the South China Sea.

人民大学外交政策专家时殷弘认为，特朗普周日再发推文抨击北京操纵货币和在南海建设“大规模军事设施”，中美间决裂的可能性正在增长，结果将是痛苦和糟糕的。

“It is still too early to make any assured predictions but I think maybe I can see that a cloudy storm is gathering on the horizon,” Shi said. “This is not good, of course.”

“做出任何确切判断为时尚早，但我认为山雨欲来风满楼，这是不好的，当然。”

Referring to the billionaire’s latest social media salvo against Beijing, Shi said: “These words should again remind the Chinese media and a large part of Chinese international scholars and even maybe many officials within the Chinese government that their previous estimates of Trump’s disposition and his China policy are too optimistic.”

提到这位亿万富翁最近在社交媒体上对北京频频发难，时殷弘说：“这些话再次提醒中国媒体和很多中国学者，甚至中国政府内的很多官员，他们之前对特朗普立场和对华政策的估计太乐观了。”

“The Chinese government, just like most governments in the world, doesn’t know who this Trump is and what kind of policies he will make. But the last week’s events will surely increase the worries in their minds about Donald Trump.”

“中国政府和世界上大多数政府一样，不知道这个特朗普是个什么人，他会采纳何种政策。但上周的事件肯定让他们对特朗普更加担忧。”

Many political observers initially dismissed Trump’s decision to hold a phone call with Tsai - the first such call between a US president or president elect and Taiwan’s leader since 1979 - as the latest example of what some see as his rash and ill-informed ventures into the world of international diplomacy.

许多政治观察家起初认为特朗普决定给蔡英文打电话，这不过是他鲁莽无知地闯入国际外交领域的最新例证，美国总统或候任总统与台湾领导人通话，这自1979年以来还是第一遭。

But some voices are pushing back against that depiction, describing the conversation as a deliberate and calculated move intended to signal that the incoming Republican president was not afraid to play hardball with his Communist party counterparts in Beijing.

但有声音不同意这种解释，他们认为这次对话是有意设计的举动，旨在表明即将就任的共和党总统不惧怕与北京的中共对手来硬的。

“I am 100% certain that this wasn’t an impromptu decision,” one foreign policy specialist with direct knowledge of the call told the Guardian. 

“我百分之百确信这不是即兴而为的决定。”一个知道内情的外交专家专家对《卫报》说。

The specialist, who declined to be named, said the 10-minute call had been preceded by weeks of discussions by officials working for Trump and Tsai. 

这位拒绝署名的专家说，这10分钟电话前，特朗普和蔡英文的幕僚沟通了数周之久。

In an article for the Fox News website, Stephen Yates, a China expert who some believe helped set up Trump’s call with Tsai, also hinted that the phone call had been a calculated move.

福克斯新闻网站一篇文章中，中国专家叶望辉也暗示打电话有所设计，有人认为正是叶望辉促成了特朗普与蔡英文通话。

Yates said the conversation was designed to show China that it could no longer dictate to whom the US president would speak. 

叶望辉说通话旨在表明中国政府不能在对美国总统说什么指手画脚了。

Shi, the Renmin University scholar, admitted he was caught in two minds as to the true meaning of Trump’s latest moves. 

人民大学学者时殷弘承认，他对特朗普最近举动的意图有两种看法。

“On the one hand I don’t believe that he would dare to dramatically change US policy towards Taiwan, even if he wants to… But on the other hand I still think there is a possibility - I don’t know how big - of a hardening of American policy towards China over the Taiwan issue.”

“一方面，我不相信他敢颠覆美国对台政策，就算他想……可另一方面，我也觉得有一种可能性，我不知道有多大，就是美国在台湾问题上的对华政策变得强硬了。”

Such a hardening risked making relations between the two countries “very tense”, he warned.

他警告说，这会让两国关系变得“非常紧张”。

Editorial writers at the Global Times, a Beijing-controlled tabloid, seemed similarly conflicted on Monday morning in an article probing Trump’s “jaw-dropping” decision to talk to Taiwan’s democratically-elected leader. 

《环球时报》社论作者看来也很纠结，周一早上的文章谈及特朗普与台湾民选领导人“令人跌破眼镜”的通话决定。

Already though one definite conclusion could be drawn, the newspaper argued. “China,” it said, “should understand Trump has two faces.”

该报称，可以得出一个肯定的结论，“中国应该搞清楚，特朗普有两张面孔。”